| Dollar remained relatively quiet. Steady in brasil (arnd 2.89) while weaker in argentina (2.79). a very favourable trade flow, keeps putting pressure on the dolar in argentina, with prospects calling for lower levels, on account of massive selling due to the soybeans (including meal and oil) exporting season, unless central bank keeps absorbing a good part of the imbalanced flow, which seems to be a decision taken by argentine monetary authorities.
-Weather showed a dryish pattern by summer’s end, favoring commencement of harvest, however, charging a toll on yields, which came out at 10/15 pct lower lvls, compared to last season, both in brasil, as well as in argentina and paraguay. Rains, over easter repeated on mid april, seem to having cut the dry spell. This became a drastic need, after almost 3 months of practically no rain, in order to prepare land for winter crops.
-Trade shows a clear slow pattern, with farmers limiting their participation, to the delivery against old contracts, with little commercial activity on the spot. On account of this, crushers/exporters traded their positions on a tidy fashion, selling to destination mkts, with very limited activity on the fob side of the business. We expect this pattern to remain unaltered, with farmers holding the grip of the mkt, for the rest of the season, thru the definition of the crops in the northern hemisphere. A clear evidence of this pattern, is the vanishing of the expectations on heavy delays at the port of Paranagua, where early estimations predicted over 45 days to get a loading berth, while current evaluations, range around 10 days.
- current values:
ARG CORN
UPRIVER
APL'04
+ 5 K VS -10 K
MAY'04
+ 8 N VS
-2 N
JUNE'04
NS VS -
5 N
ARG WHEAT
APL'04 UPRIVER 162
VS NB
NECO 163
VS NB
BBCA
164 VS NB
MAY'04
UPRIVER
164 VS NB
NECO 165
VS 162
BBCA
166 VS NB
ARG SBEANS
UPRIVER
APRIL´04
-120 N VS NB
MAY'04
-120 N VS -145
N
JULY'04
- 85 N VS -
125 N
ARG
SBEANPLLTS
UPRIVER
MAY'04
NS VS -86
JJ '04
-80 VS - 83
AS’04
NS VS -58
OND’04
-18 VS NB
BRASILIAN SBEANS
PAGUA PORT
APRIL´04
- 110 VS - 130
MAY'04
- 95 VS - 110
JUNE´04
-80 VS - 90
JUNE/JULY'04
-75 VS
– 85
JULY’04
-70 VS -80
AUG´04
NS VS -40
BRASILIAN SOY
PLLTS
PAGUA PORT
MAY'04
-62 VS -65
JJ '04
-57 VS -60
AS 04
-28 VS -31
OND 04
1 VS - 2
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