The Rice Company

 

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TRC Markets Mercosur Market Report

FIRST HALF MAY 2004

By mid May, dollar rallied in Brasil weakening the argentine peso as a side effect. Current values, Argentina 2.93; Brasil 3.21. 

Fall developed further rains, mostly concentrated in central grain producing areas of Argentina and South Brasil, enough to secure minimal conditions for winter crop plantings. Wheat farmers keep high mood for larger acreage which could turn as much as 8.00 pct in South Argentina and about 5.00 pct in South Brasil.  The tail of summer crops harvest is quickly reaching an end, with disappointing results in terms of yield.

Logistics remained more or less relaxed on the shipping side, but most ports suffered heavy congestions on the discharging side on account of excessive delay on the Chinese soyabeans lifting program. The combination of such delay and stronger dollar kept premiums under heavy pressure, only eased by weaker CBOT as from mid May. In the case of argentine maize, premiums reacted positively to stronger destination demand and robust shipment programs.  An exceptional season of shipments reached an end in South Brasil, with 1,270,000.00 tons of wheat to mainly Mediterranean and some domestic destinations and 215,000.00 tons of maize also to Mediterranean destinations and Korea. Large carry overs should result from current loading pace, but farmers do not seem to worry about it. 

CURRENT VALUES:

       
ARG WHEAT PORT SELLER BUYER

MAY-15 04 UPRIVER   154   VS   151
MAY-15 04 NECO  156   VS    NB
MAY-15 04 BBCA  161   VS    NB
JUNE   04 UPRIVER   155   VS   151
JUNE   04 NECO  157   VS    NB
JUNE   04 BBCA  162   VS    NB
JULY   04               NECO              159     VS      155

ARG MAIZE PORT SELLER BUYER

MAY    04 UPRIVER    8N   VS    2N
JUNE   04 UPRIVER    8N   VS    2N
JUNE   04               BBCA              27N     VS      20N   
JULY   04 UPRIVER   13N   VS    5N
AUG    04               UPRIVER           22U     VS      10U

ARG SBEANSPORT SELLER BUYER

MAY    04 UPRIVER -150N   VS    NB
JUNE   04 UPRIVER -135N   VS    NB
JULY   04 UPRIVER -120N   VS    NB

ARG SBEANSPLLTSPORT SELLER BUYER

JUNE   04 UPRIVER -  87   VS - 91
JULY   04 UPRIVER    NS   VS - 88
AUG    04 UPRIVER    NS     VS - 73  
SEP    04 UPRIVER    NS   VS       NB
OND    04 UPRIVER -  21   VS - 26

BRAZILIAN SBEANSPORT SELLER BUYER

JUNE   04 PARANAGUA- 130   VS -160
JJ     04 PARANAGUA- 140   VS -175
JULY   04 PARANAGUA- 135   VS -150
AUG    04 PARANAGUA-  60   VS - 70
JUNE   04 RIO GRANDE - 130   VS    NB

BRAZILIAN SBEANSPLLTS PORT SELLER BUYER

JUNE   04 PARANAGUA-  72   VS - 76
JULY   04 PARANAGUA       -  70     VS     - 72
JUG    04 PARANAGUA-  53   VS - 56
AS     04 PARANAGUA-  43   VS - 45
SEP    04 PARANAGUA-  31     VS     - 35
OND    04 PARANAGUA-   2   VS -  5

 

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